Sunbelt W2Knews Electronic Newsletter
The secret of those "who always seem to know" - Over 500,000 Readers!
Mon, Jan 1, 2001 (Vol. 6, #1 - Issue #235)
NT/W2K 2001 Predictions
This issue of W2Knews contains:
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NT/W2K 2001 Predictions
This is the time of year that industry pundits (who are *supposed*
to know what they are talking about) look in their crystal ball and
predict what is going to happen the coming 12 months. So here I go,
and we'll see how I did in a year!
- Microsoft will not be split in 2 parts this year. The case will
drag on through the courts and will probably settle after it has
been appealed by the DOJ to the Supreme Court but not in 2001 for
sure. However, the coming year will not be an easy one for them.
Market saturation for MS-Office and slow adoption of W2K being
the main culprits. This is why Microsoft will continue to acquire
major applications (like Great Plains financials last week) and
try to penetrate these markets. MS growth will slow down to max.
10-20% in 2001.
- Windows 2000 version 2 (code name Whistler) will only appear in
workstation form. The server flavor will remain vaporware until 2002.
W2K2 adoption will be very slow, as many sites will not even have
W2K rolled out to their servers by year end 2001.
- The 'Linux Hype' will die down further since all their inflated
stocks have come back to earth. But Linux will continue to eat into
the existing Unix-en and establish itself as a viable alternative
when the 2.4 Kernel finally arrives in 2001. We may even see a major
Unix vendor like HP or Sun completely standardize on Linux as a
competitive measure against W2K which is moving into the high-end
IT with the power and speed of a bulldozer.
- I was wrong in Jan 1999 when I predicted the following: "Novell
will finally be acquired this year by a big player like Oracle, Sun
or IBM". But I'm going to keep on predicting this one until it comes
true! [grin] You may even see the Novell being bought by MS in 2001.
Stranger things have happened and MS would love to 'forced-march
migrate' these sites to W2K.
- The two areas where NT/2000 sites are going to have to spend most
of their time and effort are A) Security- and B) Storage Management
as the inevitable result of expanding Internet use and integrating
it into the business process. Another 'high profile NT or W2K hack'
in 2001 will show how vulnerable sites still are. I suggest you get
your copy of Hacking Exposed 2-nd edition at Amazon.com and read up
on NT and W2K and how you need to protect both. Priority #1 in 2001.
- The current Dot.Com bloodbath will continue at higher speed and
only companies with more than a 'powerpoint business model' and 5M in
VC dollars will survive. High-Tech and Telecom outfits will suffer
slowdowns caused by this earthquake of valuations crashing back down
to earth. Companies in general will start cost cutting, need old-
fashioned cost justifications for purchasing IT-stuff and the headcount will be pushed down as much as possible. Back to Bottom Line Basics. Less *new* hardware, more focus on (software) tools to squeeze the max out of existing hardware infrastructure.
- Good bandwidth news for 2001. Tens of billions of dollars are
being spent at the moment to create worldwide fiber optic networks.
Outfits like Level 3, Global Crossing, 360networks and PSINet are
the main players. Most of this will come online the coming year
and prices for bandwidth will plummet big time. There will be a
shake-out among these broadband carriers. Result? Your Internet
pipes both in the office and at home will get a lot wider and
cheaper at the same time!
- Wireless technology will finally take off in 2001 in the business
environment. Forget wide consumer adoption. Bluetooth, the short-range wireless communications protocol that has been overhyped this year will finally be available in devices. Two caveats though: 1) It's first generation stuff so it will be buggy and limited. 2) Similar to cell-phones, we will see stories in 2001 that this technology actually turns out to be bad for your health due to the 'electronic pollution' and potential cancer it might cause.
- Intel will finally release their 64-bit Itanium architecture
which has been pushed back so many times it was nicknamed 'Itanic'.
It will pretty much coincide with Microsoft's new 64-bit Windows
Architecture becoming available. For the IT market at large in
2001 this '64-bit WinTel' will be mainly a proof-of-concept and
a sign there will be an upgrade path somewhere in the future.
- Sunbelt Software will make it in the vaunted 'Inc. 500' 2001
list of the 500 fastest growing U.S. companies. Actually, based on
our growth of the last 5 years this is already a foregone conclusion.
Did you know that 750 out of the Fortune 1000 have downloaded tools
from us? Thanks for your confidence in Sunbelt Software. We will
continue to provide you with best-of-breed system tools with
mainframe quality tech support this coming year. All 85 staff wish
you a great 2001!
(email me with feedback: [email protected])