Vol. 11, #1 - Jan 3, 2006 - Issue #557
Here Is Your 2006 Crystal Ball Issue
- EDITOR'S CORNER
- Here Is Your 2006 Crystal Ball Issue
- Quote of the Week
- TECH BRIEFING
- WServerNews 'FAVE' LINKS
- This Week's Links We Like. Tips, Hints And Fun Stuff.
KERIO Supports Bleeding Edge Snort Rules
Did you know that the Sunbelt Kerio Personal Firewall (SKPF)
supports Bleeding Edge Snort Rules? You can protect your PC
against the new WMF zero-day attack by just copying two rules
into a Kerio text file and your PC is safe. Here is the link
to our Pres' Blog with the two rules and how to plug them in.
(You know where to download the SKPF itself, the Sunbelt site)
Here Is Your 2006 Crystal Ball Issue
It's that time again, as usual I pulled out the asbestos undies, so
you can safely flame my behind after reading the 2006 predictions!
I'm dusting off the Palantir and am ready to gaze in the cloudy
crystal once more.
But to begin with, I'm repeating the tradition of my same New
Year's Wish that you have read at this spot for the last 10 years:
"A world without war, crime and insanity, where people can flourish,
prosper and reach greater heights". And let me add to that that
I'd -really- like to see World Peace for all of humanity, but I'm
not counting on it for the coming year.
Now what is expected for 2006? The Crystal Ball issue is the shortest
newsletter of all, but takes the longest time to write. First though,
here comes the hurt. How did I do with the 2005 predictions? I got
7 out of 10, not too shabby. I missed some, but not too many.
IE still has been able to hold on to 86% where I predicted lower
than 80% market share, and no major Open Source patent infringement
lawsuits either. Oh well. [grin] I have had help in getting the new
one for '06 together. Thanks to WServerNews readers Keith Hare,
Jonathan Cook, Daniel Cooke, Russell Seeney, Johan van Zyl, Tom
Trottier, Tim Payne, and last but not least: Google.
And here is your first 2006 SunPoll: "For 2006, which do you expect
to be the greatest security threat to your networks?"
- Malware attached to email
- Outside-in hacking attempts
- Internal security hacks
- Phishing attacks
Quote of the Week
"The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable
one persists to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress
depends on the unreasonable man."
-- George Bernard Shaw
MICROSOFT / ECONOMY: Like last year, MS is going to barrel along just fine. The special European version without Media Player will fall flat on its face, very few people will insist on buying it. You may well "lose" another favorive IT-vendor, as the '05 merger frenzy keeps on going in 2006. The economy for '06 is expected to
be growing more than 3% (housing bubble will cool) strong, but
expect IT budgets to decrease slightly in 2006. However security
software will climb at double digit rates, driven by more and more
sophisticated security threats by financially motivated hackers,
Government regulation and spending, and the protection of consumer
identity and data.
OPERATING SYSTEMS: Windows Vista will actually be early! They claim
late 2006 but I suspect Redmond is sandbagging it this time. The
code they recently released looks very good. However, expect Patch
Tuesdays to be -very- busy the first few months after the release.
And regarding WinFS, the new file system, that's going to be '07.
Linux will continue to go great guns and gobble up all legacy Unix,
and I still do not see a lot of Linux on the desktop for 2006
except for "no-budget" organizations.
64-BIT DEVELOPMENT: Since Exchange12 will force in 64-bit based
hardware, count on Longhorn Server (Vista's big brother) to require
the same in 2009. A lot of server virtualization will make 64-bit
server hardware adaptation going relatively fast.
ANY HARDWARE: As I predicted, Hybrid vehicles were a HUGE novelty
in 2005, and will fully go mainstream in 2006. However, the biggest
fortunes will be made in Hi-Def TV Sets; expect Dell, HP and Intel
to move into that market even faster than they are now. December
'06 you'll see 42-inch HDTV plasma set for $1,299. Flat screen HDTV
will drive broadband deployment like crazy. Seventy percent of Intel's
server chips and 85% of its consumer chips will be dual-core by the
end of 2006. Due to competition, 3G smartphones will flood on the
market at rock-bottom prices.
NETWORKING: Wi-MAX will be the hot ticket in 2006, but like last
year's predictions, old-fashioned wired networks will grow both
faster and larger in 2006. Broadband penetration will continue to
grow in the US, but will continue to lag compared to other (way)
more advanced countries. By 2010, Gartner expects 30 percent
of U.S. homes will be using only cellular or Internet telephony.
Wi-Fi mesh-nets in urban areas will spread so fast that even
wildfires can't keep up.
(V)BLOGS: Over half of the blog networks will disappear in '06.
Some 5 or 10 big ones will survive. BlogAds will will proliferate
rapidly in the immediate 12 months. However, 2006 will be the year
that video on the web will explode with VLOGS being the leader,
as all the ingredients are now in place.
SECURITY: Under pressure from Google, Microsoft has rolled out it's
'live' concept for consumers. It's a bit of a clunker, and will take
them through 2006 to get it somewhat in order, so do not expect this
puppy until 2007. When it finally arrives it will be a commercial
disaster, as subscriptions to fix something that should be good to
begin with is a really stupid idea. Your organization will be forced
to continue pro-active "defense-in-depth". Rootkits will be a major
center of attention, but do not forget macro viruses that will
spread via mobile devices. The push to use biometric ID mechanisms
will increase. Someone will get caught using prosthetic biometric
devices to counterfeit another person's identify, leading to
speculation about how many uses of prosthetic biometric devices
have not been caught. At least one popular Open Source app will
be successfully massively attacked by hackers, likely Firefox.
THE BLACKBERRY CASE: The Patent Office will reject NTP's final patent.
NTP will still win the court case and RIM will be forced to pay big
bucks or shut down. The Canadian government will step in and announce
that this is the last straw in the way Canadian Industry is treated
across the border. There will be threats of of trade retaliation and
disbanding the North American Free Trade Agreement. One side of the
American government will puff out it's chest and make their own threats,
while the other side begs RIM not to shut down as it will cause chaos
in the government and industry. The final winner? Nobody! Lessons
GAMING: Traditional gaming company business models will come under
pressure from a free and wildly popular Google online game that will
be supported by advertising. Another Gnail in Redmond's coffin. The
XBOX 360 will be a major hit but stay in short supply for the
first half of the year forcing game companies to lay off people.
The hacking community will have Linux running on the 360 in no time,
and will create a distributed supercomputing cluster using the new
XBOX hardware. Gaming will achieve more respect and market acceptance
MESSAGING SECURITY: The volume of SPAM will level off to 70% of total
email traffic. Attachments of malware to email will increase big time
in 2006, and the anti-spam laws will continue to be ineffective.
IE7 will help make RSS explode if it ever ships. Email borne "spear
phishing" attacks will be the bane of many companies and cause
even more security debacles than '05.
SPYWARE: Turned out to be the #1 headache of IT in 2005 as predicted.
Well over 80% of sites will have an antispyware solution in place by
the end of 2006. Someone will notice that the BIOS updates for PC's
from Lenovo actually install spyware that sends information back to
the company in China. (It's not paranoia if it is true) [grin]
OUTSOURCING: The trend towards outsourcing tech support to (mainly)
India is going to backlash on some companies badly. It is hard
trying to explain a problem to a person who cannot understand you,
and you not understanding them, where on top you also have doubts
about their technical ability to solve your problem, justified
or not. I predict this trend towards offshore support help will
begin to reverse in 2006 because of customer complaints about
the level of support that is given.
And one for the road. Blake Ross predicted: Due to a glitch in
Windows Vista, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer will mix up his notes
at PDC '06 and declare: "Developers, developers, developers...
We're going to f*%ing bury those guys!" Nineteen will leave
on stretchers with furniture-related injuries." Hee hee.
- Sunbelt Software will be slashdotted at least 6 times in 2006
- There will be a new product called Google Money, think Paypal with a twist, but Google's stock price will take it's first big hit (-20%)
- Microsoft will decide Windows Live isn't worth it after all and kill the baby.
- "Web 2.0" will be exposed for the marketing buzzword sham it is.
- A Korean hardware company will come out with a laptop sporting a USB airbag
- Companies to be bought in '06: TIVO, AOL, and LinkedIn whether by Yahoo, Google
or Microsoft. Eek.
- Ebay will force people to inform the IRS & Inland Revenue of all sales made. EEEK.
- 17 named storms expected in 2006; East Coast at twice the average risk; EEEEEEEK!
- Continued high oil prices and massive VC investments will force one major new clean technology into the foreground that will be taken up worldwide. wOOt!
- Apple continues to crank out next-gen iPods and the latest one will have a satellite radio receiver, a PDA, a phone and GPS-capability. I want one! Prices for iTunes songs will start varying wildly based on popularity, and some one will find a way to sell them to other consumers.
Have a great 2006 !