Vol. 16, #1 - Jan 10, 2011 - Issue #810
Crystal Ball - The Essential 2011 Predictions
|This issue of WServerNews is sponsored by|
- Editor's Corner
- Crystal Ball - The Essential 2011 Predictions
- Quotes of the Week
- Admin Toolbox
- Admin Tools We Think You Shouldn't Be Without
- Webinars & Seminars
- VIPRE Antivirus Business Product Demonstration - Jan 11
- VIPRE Email Security for Exchange Product Demonstration - Jan 25
- WServerNews FAVE Links
- This Week's Links We Like. Tips, Hints And Fun Stuff
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Crystal Ball - The Essential 2011 Predictions
At least 2010 was a bit better than 2009, although not by much. And as usual,
I'm donning my asbestos undies, so you can safely flame my poor behind after
reading the new 2011 predictions.
And again, we go gazing in the crystal for the coming 12 months, but remember,
the future ain't what it used to be. It's already here, but unevenly distributed.
There is one thing for sure, and that is that 2011 will be the year of mobile
computing. The Consumer Electronics Show which was this week, shows the
clearest inflection point in years. The era of the PC is drawing to a close.
Once, the CES showcased each new generation of desktop and laptop, but this
year's event is literally raining tablets, smartphones and other mobile
appliances. That technology is finally advanced enough, so buckle up.
To start off with, also as usual, I'm repeating the tradition of my same New
Year's Wish that you have read at this spot since 1996: "A world without war,
crime and insanity, where honest people can flourish, prosper and reach
First, how did I do with the predictions for 2009? Not that bad actually.
Here are last year's predictions if you want check my 'clairvoyance':
And here they are for 2011:
CLOUD: The use of cloud in the enterprise is going to move to actual
deployment of production apps. In 2010, IT looked at clouds and created
strategy, but in 2011 we'll see real usage. You will also see new businesses
created from scratch 100% in the cloud, and existing organizations
integrating their data center with private and public clouds - call it
hybrid clouds. And this is the year that cloud computing will go mobile
in a very big way. Why? Clouds are essentially digital-service factories,
or if you will, the first truly global utility, accessible from all corners
of the planet. Amazon Web Services will be "Cloud 9" in 2011, growing faster
than all others. But do you want cloud standards? Get over it, simply will
not happen this year, that market is too immature just yet.
WINDOWS: Companies will trust that Windows 7 is a must-have and realize they
need to ditch their old XP workstations. Win7 is going to see blockbuster
growth in 2011. Combined with Server 2008 R2, this is a killer combo. And
you might even see a Win7 tablet doing OK this year. The fact that MS
just announced a Win8 port to ARM chipsets is making Windows on Tablets
even more of a no-brainer.
OPERATING SYSTEMS: Chrome OS launches, using laptops and netbooks, and
turns out to be a dud. Why? Nothing to do with cloud fears. People simply
like tablets more.
VIRTUALIZATION: That market will continue to grow, to a degree driven by
cloud initiatives, and by adoption in more and more Small and Medium
organizations. You will see automated deployment, backup, recovery and
live migration tools becoming more popular.
DATA MANAGEMENT: It will only get worse. Torrents of data will continue to
flood in and out, and grab disk space. So, new approaches will have to be
taken in the sense of first organizing and then migrating data, e.g. creating
stubs to fool the app, making it think the data is still there but in
reality it's near-line. It's called 'Active Archive' and it's online
but on tape.
STORAGE: 2011: The year storage hurts server sales. Combine the slowdown
in server speedup with the speedup in storage performance - thanks to
Solid State Disks - and server sales will take a hit. Why replace a 3 year
old server with something only slightly faster when an SSD will provide
more performance at a lower price? Hat Tip to Robin Harris.
JOB MARKET: The best job in 2011 is going to be Software Engineer. Compared
with 2010, more employers plan to add full-time, permanent headcount in
2011, with a continued emphasis on hiring in technology and revenue-
producing fields. Want to differentiate yourself? Become a business
analytics specialist, they are going to be in vogue this year.
SECURITY TRENDS: Sure, mobile threats will be bigger, cloud security will
be talked about all the time, and virtualization risks will be a hot topic,
but there are other things too, like deperimeterization. Huh? Yeah, your
perimeter is essentially going to disappear, with all the personal devices
coming on board. It's going to rain tablets in 2011, and guess who will
be asked to support them? Right. All the responsibility and none of the
control. And let's not even talk about smartphones, you will see dual-core
phones in 2011, 3D displays, dual sim-cards, 1080p video and Near-Field
Communications technology, (the latter used for payment technology:
"wave-and-pay"). More over, Android's next move is downmarket, with Android
phones selling at unsubsidized prices under $100.
In our business, especially IT security, you're only as good as what you
know or did in the past two years. For 2011, get a personal upgrade or
prepare to become the next COBOL programmer. Hat Tip to Roger Grimes.
CYBERCRIME: 1. Attacks on retail and e-tail business will outpace attacks
targeting financial institutions. Hospitals will be a prime target as well.
2) The first dedicated VM-malware will be discovered in 2011. 3) You will
see exponential growth of smart zero-day malware. 4) Even more creative
social engineering attacks will take place. 5) More aggressive, but easy
to catch "hacktivism". 6) Increased high-profile, nation-backed cyberwar
like the Stuxnet malware.
APP STORES: These new application marketplaces will increase in importance
as an enterprise information source. Examples of successful app stores are
the ones from Salesforce and Google, but Intuit, Constant Contact and Zoho
are "up and comers", the quick adoption of tablets by business users is
helping fuel the trend.
WEB DEVELOPMENT: The Ruby language is becoming extremely popular in
developing consumer-facing web apps, and we're sure to see some big-name
companies release open-source tools and even improvements to the Ruby
core. Hat Tip to Jolie O'Dell.
BRAND HIJACKING: One thing is for sure 2011: online scammers will increase
the hijacking of major brands for their own good. Think stealing web traffic,
selling counterfeit goods, hijacking business-critical domains and more.
WILD-ASS Guesses For 2010
- In a speech, Google CEO Eric Schmidt will declare that the new Chrome OS
will be able to actually read your mind through your keyboard. He says
Google will only use this information to anonymously serve advertising
to your cerebral cortex. Hat Tip to Robert Cringely.
- Facebook will reach more than a Billion members in 2011.
- Google's Android will outpace IOS and Blackberry combined, despite the
- Google Chrome will reach 10% of the enterprise browser market.
- Adobe will buy Autodesk. Apple buys Skype, Cisco buys EMC, HP Buys
Symantec, and Oracle buys Salesforce.
- Shrinks will invent MDD (Mobile Device Disorder), and conveniently Eli
Lilly will have a new drug to handle the 'addiction'.
- By 2015, 10 per cent of your online "friends" will be nonhuman. (Gartner)
- Apple will see the first major outbreak of mac-targeted malware.
- Over the next few years, billions of enterprise IT dollars will shift
from rotating disks to Flash memory solutions.
- A Cloud-Based Operating System is launched for a mobile device.
Quotes of the Week
"Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the
mind on the present moment." -- Buddha
"The distinction between the past, present and future is only a stubbornly
persistent illusion." -- Albert Einstein
"I like the dreams of the future better than the history of the past."
-- Thomas Jefferson
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||Webinars & Seminars
VIPRE Antivirus Business Product Demonstration - Jan 11
Join us for a look at VIPRE Antivirus Business, powerful, high-performance
endpoint malware protection, which combines antivirus and antispyware into
a single agent. Plus take a deep dive into other new features including
scalable multi-site tiering and role-based access control. Learn why VIPRE
delivers all the necessary security functionality you need and nothing you
Tuesday, January 11, 2011 2:00 PM - 2:30 PM ET
VIPRE Email Security for Exchange Product Demonstration - Jan 25
Securing your Exchange Server is key to protecting your enterprise environment.
Our newest version of VIPRE Email Security for Exchange (formerly Ninja Email
Security) leverages the next-generation VIPRE antivirus scanning engine as
part of a multiple engine strategy to providing comprehensive protection
from viruses, spam and other security threats. In this product demonstration,
learn how VIPRE for Exchange can help protect your network and cut your
Exchange admin time in half with this powerful, policy-based email security
product featuring a series of 'best-of-breed' plug-ins for antispam, antivirus,
attachment filtering, and disclaimers.
Tuesday, January 25, 2011 2:00 PM - 2:30 PM ET
||WServerNews FAVE Links
This Week's Links We Like. Tips, Hints And Fun Stuff
- This is a great fave to start 2011. There will soon be seven billion people
on the planet. National Geographic explains why you shouldn't panic:
- An absolutely awesome and amazing cross section of 20 different cities in
different parts of the world - early in the morning:
- Amazing and unusual places that can be found with Google Earth:
- Three guys sitting on top of the Burj Khalifa, the tallest man-made structure
ever built at 2,717 ft (828 m):
- And now some virtual discovery. Move your cursor over the screen, and you
will have the impression you are flying over the mountains. Aim the cursor
arrow at a mountain top. Also, try moving it left to right.
- "My Blackberry Is Not Working." A hilarious sketch by Ronnie Corbett and
- Check out this map... how big Africa --really-- is!
- Yes, there is this 3D printing technology, and some one wrote a whopping
eleven predictions for the year 2011 about this niche market. Dang...
- By 2015, your mobile phone will project a 3-D image of anyone who calls and
your laptop will be powered by kinetic energy. At least, according to IBM:
- Check this out. A pen testing device (bot) designed for covert use during
physical pen tests: The PlugBot:
- The Net's Best Apple predictions for 2011:
- This is a really excellent article about security in 2020 (yes, you read
that right, 2020), written by Bruce Schneier. I'm reading his book:
- Homeless man with velvety voice becomes star. This is a nice story:
- Stacy Westfall wins the Quarter Horse Free Style Championship 2006 - riding
both bridleless and bareback. Don't think this is easy... this is really hard:
- Amazing performance and choreography at the Shanghai World Expo Closing
Ceremony Concert. Are the musicians sitting on invisible chairs?
- Amazing Super-Human Stunt Man:
- Last but not least, Check this out, it's a Redmond ad but quite spectacular: