Vol. 16, #1 - Jan 10, 2011 - Issue #810
Crystal Ball - The Essential 2011 Predictions

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  1. Editor's Corner
    • Crystal Ball - The Essential 2011 Predictions
    • Quotes of the Week
  2. Admin Toolbox
    • Admin Tools We Think You Shouldn't Be Without
  3. Webinars & Seminars
    • VIPRE Antivirus Business Product Demonstration - Jan 11
    • VIPRE Email Security for Exchange Product Demonstration - Jan 25
  4. WServerNews FAVE Links
    • This Week's Links We Like. Tips, Hints And Fun Stuff
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Editor's Corner

Crystal Ball - The Essential 2011 Predictions

At least 2010 was a bit better than 2009, although not by much. And as usual, I'm donning my asbestos undies, so you can safely flame my poor behind after reading the new 2011 predictions.

And again, we go gazing in the crystal for the coming 12 months, but remember, the future ain't what it used to be. It's already here, but unevenly distributed. There is one thing for sure, and that is that 2011 will be the year of mobile computing. The Consumer Electronics Show which was this week, shows the clearest inflection point in years. The era of the PC is drawing to a close. Once, the CES showcased each new generation of desktop and laptop, but this year's event is literally raining tablets, smartphones and other mobile appliances. That technology is finally advanced enough, so buckle up.

To start off with, also as usual, I'm repeating the tradition of my same New Year's Wish that you have read at this spot since 1996: "A world without war, crime and insanity, where honest people can flourish, prosper and reach greater heights".

First, how did I do with the predictions for 2009? Not that bad actually. Here are last year's predictions if you want check my 'clairvoyance':

And here they are for 2011:

CLOUD: The use of cloud in the enterprise is going to move to actual deployment of production apps. In 2010, IT looked at clouds and created strategy, but in 2011 we'll see real usage. You will also see new businesses created from scratch 100% in the cloud, and existing organizations integrating their data center with private and public clouds - call it hybrid clouds. And this is the year that cloud computing will go mobile in a very big way. Why? Clouds are essentially digital-service factories, or if you will, the first truly global utility, accessible from all corners of the planet. Amazon Web Services will be "Cloud 9" in 2011, growing faster than all others. But do you want cloud standards? Get over it, simply will not happen this year, that market is too immature just yet.

WINDOWS: Companies will trust that Windows 7 is a must-have and realize they need to ditch their old XP workstations. Win7 is going to see blockbuster growth in 2011. Combined with Server 2008 R2, this is a killer combo. And you might even see a Win7 tablet doing OK this year. The fact that MS just announced a Win8 port to ARM chipsets is making Windows on Tablets even more of a no-brainer.

OPERATING SYSTEMS: Chrome OS launches, using laptops and netbooks, and turns out to be a dud. Why? Nothing to do with cloud fears. People simply like tablets more.

VIRTUALIZATION: That market will continue to grow, to a degree driven by cloud initiatives, and by adoption in more and more Small and Medium organizations. You will see automated deployment, backup, recovery and live migration tools becoming more popular.

DATA MANAGEMENT: It will only get worse. Torrents of data will continue to flood in and out, and grab disk space. So, new approaches will have to be taken in the sense of first organizing and then migrating data, e.g. creating stubs to fool the app, making it think the data is still there but in reality it's near-line. It's called 'Active Archive' and it's online but on tape.

STORAGE: 2011: The year storage hurts server sales. Combine the slowdown in server speedup with the speedup in storage performance - thanks to Solid State Disks - and server sales will take a hit. Why replace a 3 year old server with something only slightly faster when an SSD will provide more performance at a lower price? Hat Tip to Robin Harris.

JOB MARKET: The best job in 2011 is going to be Software Engineer. Compared with 2010, more employers plan to add full-time, permanent headcount in 2011, with a continued emphasis on hiring in technology and revenue- producing fields. Want to differentiate yourself? Become a business analytics specialist, they are going to be in vogue this year.

SECURITY TRENDS: Sure, mobile threats will be bigger, cloud security will be talked about all the time, and virtualization risks will be a hot topic, but there are other things too, like deperimeterization. Huh? Yeah, your perimeter is essentially going to disappear, with all the personal devices coming on board. It's going to rain tablets in 2011, and guess who will be asked to support them? Right. All the responsibility and none of the control. And let's not even talk about smartphones, you will see dual-core phones in 2011, 3D displays, dual sim-cards, 1080p video and Near-Field Communications technology, (the latter used for payment technology: "wave-and-pay"). More over, Android's next move is downmarket, with Android phones selling at unsubsidized prices under $100.

In our business, especially IT security, you're only as good as what you know or did in the past two years. For 2011, get a personal upgrade or prepare to become the next COBOL programmer. Hat Tip to Roger Grimes.

CYBERCRIME: 1. Attacks on retail and e-tail business will outpace attacks targeting financial institutions. Hospitals will be a prime target as well. 2) The first dedicated VM-malware will be discovered in 2011. 3) You will see exponential growth of smart zero-day malware. 4) Even more creative social engineering attacks will take place. 5) More aggressive, but easy to catch "hacktivism". 6) Increased high-profile, nation-backed cyberwar like the Stuxnet malware.

APP STORES: These new application marketplaces will increase in importance as an enterprise information source. Examples of successful app stores are the ones from Salesforce and Google, but Intuit, Constant Contact and Zoho are "up and comers", the quick adoption of tablets by business users is helping fuel the trend.

WEB DEVELOPMENT: The Ruby language is becoming extremely popular in developing consumer-facing web apps, and we're sure to see some big-name companies release open-source tools and even improvements to the Ruby core. Hat Tip to Jolie O'Dell.

BRAND HIJACKING: One thing is for sure 2011: online scammers will increase the hijacking of major brands for their own good. Think stealing web traffic, selling counterfeit goods, hijacking business-critical domains and more.

WILD-ASS Guesses For 2010
  • In a speech, Google CEO Eric Schmidt will declare that the new Chrome OS will be able to actually read your mind through your keyboard. He says Google will only use this information to anonymously serve advertising to your cerebral cortex. Hat Tip to Robert Cringely.
  • Facebook will reach more than a Billion members in 2011.
  • Google's Android will outpace IOS and Blackberry combined, despite the Verizon iPhone.
  • Google Chrome will reach 10% of the enterprise browser market.
  • Adobe will buy Autodesk. Apple buys Skype, Cisco buys EMC, HP Buys Symantec, and Oracle buys Salesforce.
  • Shrinks will invent MDD (Mobile Device Disorder), and conveniently Eli Lilly will have a new drug to handle the 'addiction'.
  • By 2015, 10 per cent of your online "friends" will be nonhuman. (Gartner)
  • Apple will see the first major outbreak of mac-targeted malware.
  • Over the next few years, billions of enterprise IT dollars will shift from rotating disks to Flash memory solutions.
  • A Cloud-Based Operating System is launched for a mobile device.

Quotes of the Week

"Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind on the present moment." -- Buddha

"The distinction between the past, present and future is only a stubbornly persistent illusion." -- Albert Einstein

"I like the dreams of the future better than the history of the past." -- Thomas Jefferson

Warm regards, and thank you for being a WServerNews subscriber. No trees were killed in the sending of this message, but a large number of electrons were terribly inconvenienced. Please tell your friends about us. They can subscribe here:

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Hope you enjoy this issue of WServerNews! Warm regards, Stu Sjouwerman  |   Email me: [email protected]


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    Webinars & Seminars

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